Thiago (BRE, Forward, £6.7m)

Verdict: HOLD

Despite a concerning 1-point cameo in GW14, Thiago's impressive goal tally and strong underlying stats make him a valuable asset to hold, especially with favourable fixtures on the horizon.

The Reasoning

Fitness & Availability: Thiago is fully available and has no injury concerns, which is always a massive plus for any FPL asset.
Recent Performance: While his 1-point, 30-minute appearance in GW14 was a frustrating blank, it came after a run of explosive form, including double-digit hauls of 13 points in GW13 and GW11. With 11 goals this season, he's proven his ability to deliver big returns.
Upcoming Fixtures: The immediate trip to Arsenal (A, difficulty 5) is tough, but the subsequent fixtures against Spurs (A, difficulty 3) and particularly Leeds (H, difficulty 2) offer excellent opportunities for him to get back amongst the points.
Underlying Stats: His ICT Index of 105.3, driven by high Influence (458.6) and Threat (477.0), clearly indicates his consistent involvement in Brentford's attacking play. At £6.7m, his 11 goals represent fantastic value, boasting a points-per-million of 11.64.

Risks

The primary risk is his minutes, following the benching and 30-minute cameo in GW14. Managers will need to keep a close eye on team news to ensure he's back in the starting XI. The Arsenal fixture is also a tough one, which could lead to another blank.

Alternative Options

If you're looking for a more nailed forward around this price point, Dominic Solanke (£6.5m) offers consistent starts and penalty duties, or if you need to free up funds, João Pedro (£5.5m) could be a decent shout, though his ceiling might not be as high as Thiago's.

The Strategic Play

Thiago has shown he's a prolific goalscorer and a potential differential. While the GW14 benching is a concern, his overall season form and the upcoming favourable fixture against Leeds suggest holding for now is the sensible play. Monitor his minutes in the Arsenal game closely; if he's benched again, it might be time to consider a transfer, but for now, his goal threat is too high to ignore.

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