Welbeck (BHA, Forward, £6.6m)

Verdict: AVOID

Despite being fully available, Welbeck's recent blanks and inconsistent minutes make him a risky pick, especially with a tough fixture run ahead.

The Reasoning

Fitness & Availability: Welbeck is fully available and has no reported injuries or suspensions, which is a positive.
Recent Performance: After a couple of decent hauls in GW10 (6 points) and GW12 (8 points), Welbeck has blanked in his last two outings, managing only 1 and 2 points. Crucially, his minutes have been inconsistent, playing only 23 minutes in GW14 and 64 in GW13, suggesting he's not nailed for 90.
Upcoming Fixtures: Brighton face a mixed bag of fixtures, with Aston Villa (H) and West Ham (H) before a challenging trip to Liverpool (A). While the home games offer some potential, the Liverpool away fixture is a major deterrent for attacking returns.
Underlying Stats: Welbeck has bagged 7 goals this season, showing he can still find the net. However, his recent xG (0.52, 0.07) and xA (0.00, 0.01) are low, reflecting his reduced minutes and lack of consistent impact in the final third.

Risks

The primary risk for Welbeck is his inconsistent game time, as evidenced by his recent minutes. This makes him a significant rotation risk. Furthermore, Brighton's form has been patchy, and the upcoming fixture against Liverpool is a major hurdle for any potential hauls.

Alternative Options

For managers looking for a forward in a similar price bracket, Dominic Solanke (£6.8m) offers better form and more secure minutes at Bournemouth. Alternatively, Matheus Cunha (£5.7m) at Wolves is a cheaper option who is currently playing well and getting consistent starts.

The Strategic Play

Managers currently holding Welbeck should consider moving him on. His recent blanks, coupled with inconsistent minutes and a challenging fixture against Liverpool, make him a difficult player to rely on. Look for forwards with more secure starts and better immediate fixtures to maximise your points.

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